HAPPY NEW TRADERS YEAR-2015

Click Video Above> Outlook on 2015 Global Trends

Economic Outlook Survey

Highlights

Results of FICCI’s latest Economic Outlook Survey point towards a recovery in the year 2014-15. The median GDP growth forecast is estimated at 5.5% for 2014-15, with a minimum and maximum range of 5.0% and 6.0% respectively. The industrial sector is projected to witness an uptick, with a median growth forecast of 3.3% in 2014-15. Though both agriculture and services sector growth are likely to be in line with broad expectations, pressuremight arise on agriculture sector with chances of El Nino effect marring growth prospects next year.

GDP growth in Q4 2013-14 is estimated at 5.0%, with a range of 4.6% and 5.6%. Anything below 5.2% growth in Q4

FY14 will pull down the estimated growth of 4.9% (as announced by Central Statistical Organization) for the full year.

The median forecast for fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP for 2014-15 was put at 4.4%, with an indicative range of 4.1% to 5.5%. This is slightly higher than the 4.1% estimate announced recently in the interim budget. The possibility of subsidy bill overshooting leading to a fiscal slippage remains real. On the roadmap for fiscal consolidation for new government, participating economists were of the view that there is a pressing need to get the fiscal house in order and we should get back to pre-financial crisis deficit levels with utmosturgency.

Further, both Wholesale Price Index and Consumer Price Index are projected to be with in range. Headline inflation rate (WPI) is expected to be around 5.5% in 2014-15 with a lower and upper limit of 5.0% and 6.3% respectively. CPI is projected to be around 7.9% in 2014-15.

On the external front, export growth is likely to see an improvement in Q1 2014-15 supported by a recovery in advanced economies. The CAD to GDP ratio will remain in the comfort zone and is expected at 2.2% in 2014-15.

With regard to Central Bank’s stance in the forthcoming policy (April 1, 2014), a majority of economists felt that the

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would keep key rates unchanged.

Also, respondents felt that giving an impetus to industrial growth is the need of the hour and this can be achieved by getting the investment cycle back on track. It was mentioned that the government should seriously work towards debottlenecking sectors like mining and creating a stable and transparent policy framework conducive for businesses.

[CLICK > FICCI-EOS-March-2014.pdf]

Indian economy to grow 6.4% in 2015-16: World Bank

Indian economy, which accounts for 80 per cent of South Asia’s output, is set to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2015-16 as against 5.6 per cent in 2014-15, the World Bank has said.

With economic activity buoyed by expectations from the new elected government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, “India is benefiting from a “Modi dividend“,” the Bank said in its twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus report yesterday.

Over the next year or so economic growth should be supported by the recovering US economy that would provide a market for Indian merchandise and service exports, it said.

“The outlook over the next years for South Asia indicates broad economic stability and a pick-up in growth with potential risks concentrated on the fiscal and structural reform side,” said Martin Rama, Chief Economist for South Asia at the World Bank.

“Future growth will increasingly depend on strong investment and export performance,” he added.

Private investment is expected to pick up thanks to the government’s business orientation, and declining oil prices should boost private sector competitiveness.

But economic reforms will be needed for India to achieve its full long-term growth potential, the report argued.

The report said the region’s economy will expand by a real 6 per cent in 2015 and by 6.4 per cent in 2016 compared to 5.4 per cent this year, potentially making it the second fastest growing region in the world after East Asia and the Pacific.

Other countries in the region are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

The Bank said India’s long-term growth potential remains high due to favourable demographics, relatively high savings, and policies and efforts to improve skills and education, facilitate domestic market integration and incentivize manufacturing activities.

In the medium term, with the economy still below potential and reforms on a gradualist path, growth is expected to accelerate from 5.6 per cent in 2015 to 6.4 per cent and 7 per cent in 2016 and 2017.

Inflation is expected to decline with monetary policy switching to inflation targeting while the current account deficit is expected to widen somewhat as import demand and capital inflows rise.

Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue with stronger revenue mobilisation, while the oil subsidy burden could decline to 0.6 per cent of GDP if benign global crude prices persist, it said.

Supply chain delays and uncertainty are a major yet under-appreciated constraint to manufacturing growth and competitiveness in India, it said.

CLICK > indian-economy-to-grow-64-in-201516-world-bank/article6477770.ece

{CLICK > Commodity Market Outlook }

CLICK VIDEO

Financial Markets in INDIA

CLICK > Learning Financial Management/CommoditiesMarkets

In my previous article, I have explained how Money Markets are a subset of the Financial Markets. You can read about it here: What are Financial Markets ?

Money Markets:

Slice of the financial markets that deal with short term financial assets called near money, which are highly liquid (can be quickly converted to money)
It deals with short term funds meaning having maturity of upto a year.
It does not literally deal in money/cash but close substitutes of money such as T-bills, promissory notes, commercial paper etc. that can be quickly converted to cash without making any losses and that too at low transaction costs.
It constitutes of Central Bank, Commercial Banks, NBFCs, etc.
Transactions take place via oral communication without the help of brokers unlike Capital Markets where transactions take place formally on stock exchanges.
It comprises of submarkets like: Call Money Market, Acceptance and Bill Market.

50 Ways To Invest In Gold

Gold investing has long been a popular option for investors looking to diversify their holdings. The precious metal is actively traded by a number of individuals and institutions, but is also held by a number of other investors as well. It has become a popular safe haven as there seems to be very few safe options left, especially now that the Swiss franc has been pegged to the euro. A gold allocation can also act as a hedging tool in a portfolio, as the metal’s price typically moves inversely when compared to major equity benchmarks, generally offering nice returns when broad markets are slumping -[Continue to Click-50-ways-to-invest-in-gold]

SILVER

CLICK> SILVER > SUPPLY AND DEMAND

SILVER PRICE >

Silver is traded around the clock and around the world, including the major global commodity markets of London, Zurich, New York, Chicago and Hong Kong. The London market began trading silver in the 17th century and, to this day, it remains the center of the physical silver trade for most of the world. However, the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is the most significant paper contracts trading market for silver. Silver’s spot price – the current price of silver that reflects market variables and expectations – is determined by the COMEX.

Overall, the price of silver is determined by the available supply versus fabrication demand. In recent years, fabrication demand has greatly outpaced mine production forcing market participants to use existing stocks to meet demand. As these available sources continue to decline, silver’s fundamental value continues to strengthen. However, because silver is a tangible asset, and is recognized as a store of value, its price can also be affected by factors like inflation (real or perceived), changing values of paper currencies, and fluctuations in deficits and interest rates

CLICK>SILVER PRICE

CHINESE COPPER ELEPHANT

Chinese copper elephant

“Over the last 10 years, copper’s annual average growth rate in demand has been 13% for China. The annual growth rate over the next five years is going to be 5%. Over the last 10 years, average annual copper consumption has been 600,000 tonnes, and going forward it’s going to be 500,000 tonnes…” Northern Miner.

An October update to the Thomson Reuters GFMS 2014 Copper Survey predicts global demand will have grown by 859,000 tonnes in 2014.

Again from the Northern Miner interview with Julian Kettle head of metals and mining research at Wood Mackenzie in London:

“Copper is always the most interesting metal, and the issue with copper is that we get disruptions to supply on an ongoing basis. Mine disruptions will typically vary from 3–8% of global copper supply, but this year we think it’s going to be above trend at 5–5.5%. So this year, we’ll see about 1 million tonnes of copper supply taken out of the market.- [Continue to Click- chinese-copper-elephant/#]

CRUDE OIL

In the last couple of months, the sharp reversion in oil prices has certainly caught the world’s attention. While the majority of economists and analysts continue to expect incorrectly that falling oil prices are a positive input to economic growth, the reality is that it is not. The negative impact to economic growth from the decline in oil prices are quite considerable when you consider that almost 40% of all the jobs created since 2009 have been in energy related industries.

Furthermore, many of those jobs are in the highest wage paying areas of the country that leads to more consumption and further job growth in other areas of the economy. In fact, for each job created in the energy sector there are nearly three jobs created elsewhere in the economy.

“What we've got here is a failure to communicate.” -

As I discussed at length previously, the current problem in the energy price is a realization of a supply / demand imbalance.

"First, the development of the ‘shale oil’ production over the last five years has caused oil inventories to surge at a time when demand for petroleum products is on the decline as shown below."-[Continue to Click-Chart-Of-The-Day-Natural-Gas VS Crude OIl-Suggests-33-Oil.html

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HAPPY NEW YEAR-2015

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