Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Trade Cautiously, We should remember recent History
Hot FDI and FII Money Flooding Back into India
15 October 2009. Normally brash Mumbai felt a little flat at the start of 2009 - as did most places. To be quite honest, it was a bit scary, which is why I asked in my inaugural piece for back in May, where have all the jobs and cranes gone?
15 October 2009. Normally brash Mumbai felt a little flat at the start of 2009 - as did most places. To be quite honest, it was a bit scary, which is why I asked in my inaugural piece for back in May, where have all the jobs and cranes gone?
We had heard a giant sucking sound as foreigners pulled their money out of the country. The money from Foreign Direct Investment, or FDI, and the less well know Foreign Institutional Investors, or FII (who buy into stocks and funds), have been a key part of India's growth story this decade. As I reported at the time, by last year investment made up 39% of India's GDP, compared to 25% in 2003, and a third of that came from foreigners. By that time, FDI was down about a third on the previous year, and as it turned out May marked the low point. FDI was down a eye-watering 46% in May to $2.1 billion. But that marked the button. As global markets turned around, and with the comprehensive victory for Congress in the General Elections bringing confidence in India to higher levels, things turned around. In June, there was a slight year-on-year increase of FDI to 7%, and by July it really took off, growing 55% to $3.5 billion. The Reserve bank of India has just announced that August saw another growth spur, with inflows up 40.4% to $3.27 billion.
The Economic Times has just reported that FII investment is up, with the Indian Stock Market taking in $13 billion so far in 2009 from foreign institutions. This is in stark contrast to 2008, when FII's pulled $2.4 billion out of the market. FIIs such as pensions managers, investment houses and sovereign wealth funds have been both a growth driver and a beneficiary of that growth, with stocks now worth more than double what they were at their March lows. in Q2, there was a combined $15 billion inflow in both FDI and FII money. Although the numbers aren't yet tabulated, Q3 is going to be bigger - probably the biggest quarter ever. This year, then, is a tale of two halves, and where the year started with that sucking sound, now there is a wave of money crashing over India. This is a strange question to ask, but is that a good thing? Sadly the Indian media doesn't address this question very well, but an excellent New York Times article examines some of the problem. Clearly India needs better infrastructure and more open markets, and money generally helps in different ways in both areas. It has also helped to restore the natural bullishness of Indians, who are shopping and investing themselves like crazy. Our assets are going up in value, which is good for all of us who have something to our name. However 'hot' inflows carry some health warnings. As we have seen at the start of the year, money can go out even faster than it comes in, and that can be extremely de-stabilizing on an economy whose debts levels are second only to the US. The flows naturally move faster than our Government and the tangled web of the civil service at both state and federal level - but it is at this level that investment and reform is most urgently needed. Investors may well flee again if there is no quick sign of progress. If the money continues to flow in, however, there are another set of problems. Asset prices are starting to look bubble-like again. For example, stocks are just 20 per cent off their peak in 2008, but profits are less and revenue growth slower.
Inflows have also helped push the value of the rupee up by 11% this year against the dollar, making exports less competitive. And with the Consumer Price Index already nudging up to 12%, further growth in stocks and house prices is likely to bring back the spectre of high inflation in India, which leads both to economic hardship and social unrest. There are strong hints coming out of the RBI that interest rates will have to go up. So while we should rightfully celebrate being back in the go-go-growth mode, we should remember recent history and tread cautiously.
-Article from Other Sources
Inflows have also helped push the value of the rupee up by 11% this year against the dollar, making exports less competitive. And with the Consumer Price Index already nudging up to 12%, further growth in stocks and house prices is likely to bring back the spectre of high inflation in India, which leads both to economic hardship and social unrest. There are strong hints coming out of the RBI that interest rates will have to go up. So while we should rightfully celebrate being back in the go-go-growth mode, we should remember recent history and tread cautiously.
-Article from Other Sources
Friday, October 16, 2009
FLOOD OF MONEY-INDIAN STOCK MARKET
DIWALI -2008
DIWALI-2009
Troubles as light as Air,
love as deep as Ocean,
Friends as Solid as Diamonds,
and Success as bright as Gold.. so,
"Happy Diwali"
WHEN EVER FOR YOU-K.MOKAN DASS
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
NEXT IS WHAT, INDIA WILL CROSS OVER CHINA .......
World Population
The world population reached the six billion mark in 1999. It is quite amazing to note that humans took a century to increase their headcount from one million to two million. Another 30 years, from 1930-1960, to become three billion, just 15 years to reach four billion, and twelve years for the five billion benchmark. Experts estimate that given the current trends, the world population will hit the seven billion mark by 2010.
Understanding World Population Trends
The world population figure provides an estimate of the total number of people living on the Earth at a given period of time. The phenomenon of high birth rates, coupled with a declining death rate, resulted in tremendous population growth in the 20th century. Growth in developing nations acted as a catalyst to this trend. India and China, which house almost 36% of the world population, are the finest examples of growing population in the developing world.
According to the 2008 data, the distribution of the world population among different regions was as follows:
· World – 6,707 millions
· Africa – 973 millions
· Asia – 4,054 millions
· Europe - 732 millions
· North America – 337 millions
· Latin America and the Caribbean - 577 millions
· Oceania - 34 millions
The world population figure provides an estimate of the total number of people living on the Earth at a given period of time. The phenomenon of high birth rates, coupled with a declining death rate, resulted in tremendous population growth in the 20th century. Growth in developing nations acted as a catalyst to this trend. India and China, which house almost 36% of the world population, are the finest examples of growing population in the developing world.
According to the 2008 data, the distribution of the world population among different regions was as follows:
· World – 6,707 millions
· Africa – 973 millions
· Asia – 4,054 millions
· Europe - 732 millions
· North America – 337 millions
· Latin America and the Caribbean - 577 millions
· Oceania - 34 millions
World Population: Future Estimates
Since the start of the 21st century, the world population added approximately 80 million people every year. The population growth rate has declined since the last quarter of the 20th century by above 2%. However, experts forecast that a further decline will occur only after 2015. If the population continues to grow at this rate, it is expected that the human population will reach 8.9 billion by 2050.
Experts also highlight that population growth in developing nations would significantly determine the world population by the middle of this century. However, the population rate of developed nations is expected to drop substantially in the coming decades. There will be five Asian nations (India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia) that will account a major part of the world population figures by 2050. The US, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Iran will also contribute their share.
Analysts predict that India is expected to soon out number China to attain of the status of the country with the highest population.
Population Density
Population density is the measurement of the exact number of population per unit area. It is most commonly used to measure the approximate range of human population inhabiting a unit area, usually per square kilometer.
Since the start of the 21st century, the world population added approximately 80 million people every year. The population growth rate has declined since the last quarter of the 20th century by above 2%. However, experts forecast that a further decline will occur only after 2015. If the population continues to grow at this rate, it is expected that the human population will reach 8.9 billion by 2050.
Experts also highlight that population growth in developing nations would significantly determine the world population by the middle of this century. However, the population rate of developed nations is expected to drop substantially in the coming decades. There will be five Asian nations (India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia) that will account a major part of the world population figures by 2050. The US, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Iran will also contribute their share.
Analysts predict that India is expected to soon out number China to attain of the status of the country with the highest population.
Population Density
Population density is the measurement of the exact number of population per unit area. It is most commonly used to measure the approximate range of human population inhabiting a unit area, usually per square kilometer.
Understanding Human Population Density
Human population density is calculated in terms of region, zone, county, city, nation or the entire world. The Earth's area is 510 million square kilometers, which remains constant but the world's population grows constantly. It is 6.7 billion, based on the data released by the US Census Bureau on 15 December, 2008. So, the world population density is 13.1 per square kilometer (total population divided by Earth's total area.) It is still not an accurate figure for human population, considering how many uninhabited regions the Earth has, mostly due to extreme conditions.
Factors Affecting Human Population Density
Cities across the globe face large population density, due to enhanced access to civic facilities such as transportation, communication and employment. As cities go through economic development sprees, they tend to attract migration from rural areas, leading to rapidly increasing population density, and normally over-crowding.
Other geographic factors that affect population density in the world are elaborated below:
· Temperature: Regions with mild temperature suffer from high population density. Examples are the Antarctica or Sahara regions.
· Resources: Areas rich in natural resources such as minerals, oil, wood, flora and fauna are densely populated.
· Relief: Mountainous regions are sparsely populated due to lack of transportations and communication channels. For instance, the Himalayan region has little inhabitancy, while low-land region of Gangetic plains in India is one of the world’s most densely populated regions.
Looking beyond these factors of natural geography, political and economic conditions also affect a region’s population density. Nations with stable political and economic scenario tends to remain heavily populated.
World Population Density Trends : Decreased death rates and ever inflating birth rates lead to rapid population growth in the world’s developing regions.
Human population density is calculated in terms of region, zone, county, city, nation or the entire world. The Earth's area is 510 million square kilometers, which remains constant but the world's population grows constantly. It is 6.7 billion, based on the data released by the US Census Bureau on 15 December, 2008. So, the world population density is 13.1 per square kilometer (total population divided by Earth's total area.) It is still not an accurate figure for human population, considering how many uninhabited regions the Earth has, mostly due to extreme conditions.
Factors Affecting Human Population Density
Cities across the globe face large population density, due to enhanced access to civic facilities such as transportation, communication and employment. As cities go through economic development sprees, they tend to attract migration from rural areas, leading to rapidly increasing population density, and normally over-crowding.
Other geographic factors that affect population density in the world are elaborated below:
· Temperature: Regions with mild temperature suffer from high population density. Examples are the Antarctica or Sahara regions.
· Resources: Areas rich in natural resources such as minerals, oil, wood, flora and fauna are densely populated.
· Relief: Mountainous regions are sparsely populated due to lack of transportations and communication channels. For instance, the Himalayan region has little inhabitancy, while low-land region of Gangetic plains in India is one of the world’s most densely populated regions.
Looking beyond these factors of natural geography, political and economic conditions also affect a region’s population density. Nations with stable political and economic scenario tends to remain heavily populated.
World Population Density Trends : Decreased death rates and ever inflating birth rates lead to rapid population growth in the world’s developing regions.
The World’s Most Populated Cities
Tokyo-Japan; Mexico City-Mexico; Mumbai-India; Sáo Paulo-Brazil; New York City-USA
Shanghai, China; Lagos- Nigeria; Los Angeles- USA; Calcutta-India; Buenos Aires-Argentina
Seóul-South Korea; Beijing-China; Karachi- Pakistan; Delhi- India; Dhaka- Bangladesh; Manila- Philippines
Cairo- Egypt; Õsaka-Japan; Rio de Janeiro-Brazil; Tianjin-China
Friday, October 9, 2009
WAY OF GROWTH DEPENDS WITH....
BE INDIAN, BUY INDIAN SHAREES.......... SORRY$$$ what says GDP ???!!!
World GDP, also known as world gross domestic product or GWP - gross world product, calculated on a nominal basis, was estimated at $65.61 trillion in 2007 by the CIA World Factbook. While the US is the largest economy, growth in world GDP of 5.2% was led by China (11.4%), India (9.2%) and Russia (8.1%).
Throughout the Twentieth century the United States of America has dominated world gross domestic product, or World GDP. In 2007, according to the International Monetary Fund, the US GDP was $13.8 trillion. Since rising from the ashes of World War II, Japan has become the second largest world economy, with a GDP of $4.4 trillion. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and the third largest in the world, with an annual gross domestic product of $3.2 trillion. China is close behind Germany at $3.2 trillion, and due to overtake it soon. If current growth rates continue, China will become the largest economy in the world somewhere between 2025 and 2030. The United States will be pushed down to second spot. At that time, three out of the four largest economies in the world will be Asian – China, India and Japan. The United Kingdom and France are currently at fifth and sixth spots respectively. UK GDP for 2007 was $2.8 trillion and for France the amount stood at $2.6 trillion. European countries round out the next two spots in the GDP list. Italy is seventh with a GDP amount of $2.1 trillion and Spain is at eighth with $1.4 trillion. Five out of ten top world economies are European. Canada and Brazil are also in the Top 10 World GDP List: Canada with GDP of $1.4 trillion and Brazil with $1.3 trillion. Just outside the top 10, Russia has made significant economic progress in the recent years after the Soviet Union was divided into several countries. In 2007, Russian GDP stood at $1.3 trillion. India is close behind at $1.1 trillion. South Korea is staking its claim to importance by becoming the world’s 12th biggest economy, and the fourth biggest in Asia, with a GDP just under $1 trillion. Australia has been booming off the back of an extended run up in the prices of commodities, and is now the world’s 13th biggest economy with a GDP of $908 billion. Boosted by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico has been powering forward with its GDP reach $893 billion. The gross domestic product of the Netherlands in 2007 was $769 billion and Turkey stood at $663 billion.
Throughout the Twentieth century the United States of America has dominated world gross domestic product, or World GDP. In 2007, according to the International Monetary Fund, the US GDP was $13.8 trillion. Since rising from the ashes of World War II, Japan has become the second largest world economy, with a GDP of $4.4 trillion. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and the third largest in the world, with an annual gross domestic product of $3.2 trillion. China is close behind Germany at $3.2 trillion, and due to overtake it soon. If current growth rates continue, China will become the largest economy in the world somewhere between 2025 and 2030. The United States will be pushed down to second spot. At that time, three out of the four largest economies in the world will be Asian – China, India and Japan. The United Kingdom and France are currently at fifth and sixth spots respectively. UK GDP for 2007 was $2.8 trillion and for France the amount stood at $2.6 trillion. European countries round out the next two spots in the GDP list. Italy is seventh with a GDP amount of $2.1 trillion and Spain is at eighth with $1.4 trillion. Five out of ten top world economies are European. Canada and Brazil are also in the Top 10 World GDP List: Canada with GDP of $1.4 trillion and Brazil with $1.3 trillion. Just outside the top 10, Russia has made significant economic progress in the recent years after the Soviet Union was divided into several countries. In 2007, Russian GDP stood at $1.3 trillion. India is close behind at $1.1 trillion. South Korea is staking its claim to importance by becoming the world’s 12th biggest economy, and the fourth biggest in Asia, with a GDP just under $1 trillion. Australia has been booming off the back of an extended run up in the prices of commodities, and is now the world’s 13th biggest economy with a GDP of $908 billion. Boosted by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico has been powering forward with its GDP reach $893 billion. The gross domestic product of the Netherlands in 2007 was $769 billion and Turkey stood at $663 billion.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
How to Trade China with ETFs
by -Ron Rowland - MONEY AND MARKET
Dear Subscriber,
Right now, China is celebrating 60 years of Communist party rule. Most of the party-goers aren't old enough to remember anything else, of course, but that isn't stopping the nationwide festivities.
The sheer scale of China is mind-boggling! Just think about it ...
1.3 billion people — more than 4x the U.S. population ...
3.7 million square miles ...
And borders that touch 14 other nations!
Communist China Turns 60.
Back in the 1970s, the Chinese government figured out that the whole "central planning" thing wasn't working so well. And communist ideology gave way to a pragmatic mix of state ownership and entrepreneurial capitalism.
It worked ... China's economy is now 70 times bigger than it was in 1978, when the economic liberation began. Depending on how you calculate, China is either the second or third largest economy in the world!
The vast industrial base, concentrated in the coastal regions, is transforming China. Farm workers from the massive interior are drawn by the relative high pay of factories. New cities spring up out of nowhere to house these workers and provide for their needs. And now many of the products that were once immediately shipped to the U.S. or Europe are staying at home, snapped up by China's newly-prosperous middle class.
A middle class in a communist society? Hard to believe, yes, but there really is such a thing in China now. And there's an entire younger generation that now knows what they're missing — and they're working hard to reach the next level.
China's new middle class is on a shopping spree.
So if long-term rewards are what you're looking for, China represents an amazing investment opportunity. But how do you play it?
First, recognize that anything China-related is going to be a roller-coaster ride, just as it has been the last few years. Therefore don't invest unless you're prepared for the bumps and jerks.
Second, know how much risk you're taking. Individual Chinese stocks can deliver amazing profits, but they can be hard to trade. That's why I think exchange traded funds (ETFs) are the best way for most investors to get involved in China's hot market. And you have several choices — some diversified, some more specialized.
Here's a quick summary:
Broad-Based China ETFs
U.S. investors can pick from four ETFs that track diversified Chinese stock market indexes:
iShares FTSE China Index Fund (FCHI)
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI)
SPDR S&P China (GXC)
PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (PGJ)
Each of these ETFs takes a slightly different approach to constructing a China portfolio. FXI holds the 25 largest Hong Kong-listed companies that are available to foreigners. FCHI and GXC are similar but add some mid-cap stocks to the mix. They're a little more diversified than FXI. All three are capitalization-weighted.
PGJ takes a somewhat different tack. First, it includes only Chinese stocks that have a listing on U.S. exchanges. Second, PGJ uses a tiered-weighting method, which results in the sector mix being a little different from the others.
Specialized China ETFs
If you want to get a little more aggressive, Claymore offers two China ETFs that have a tighter focus:
Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETF (HAO)
Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (TAO)
HAO is a good way to get exposure to small, fast-growing Chinese companies. These stocks tend to be less dependent on exports and more related to China's domestic economy. TAO gives you an opportunity to profit from China's real estate and construction boom.
China is growing like crazy.
Inverse and Leveraged China ETFs
What if you think that China's stock market has gone up too far, too fast, and is due for a quick drop? You may still be able to profit with ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP). This is a 2x leveraged inverse ETF. For instance, on a day when the underlying index goes down 2 percent, FXP is calibrated to move twice as much in the other direction — up 4 percent in this example.
On the other hand, if you're bullish on the Chinese market, there's the ProShares Ultra FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (XPP). This 2x leveraged "bullish" fund aims to give twice the daily move in the same direction.
The leverage factor for ETFs like these is reset daily, so the 2x math doesn't always work for periods longer than a day. In other words, FXP and XPP are best used as tools by short-term traders, but if your timing is right you can make big profits from them.
Chinese Currency ETFs
If you want to bet on China's currency, the renminbi (also called the yuan), you can do it with these two instruments:
Market Vectors Chinese Renminbi/USD ETN (CNY)
WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB)
There's one key difference between the CNY and the CYB: CNY is actually an exchange traded note (ETN), not an ETF. Practically speaking, ETNs work much the same way as ETFs, but they're actually a form of debt instrument. I wrote about the unique risks of ETNs earlier this year in my Money and Markets column.
Chinese law prevents the funds from directly investing in the renminbi, so they hold currency derivatives known as nondeliverable forwards. These are similar to futures contracts, which reflect a market's expectations. As a result, these funds might not perfectly track the yuan.
As you can tell, there are plenty of ways to invest in China's stunning growth story. I've only covered a few of them here, and ETF sponsors are planning many more. Do your research first, but don't overlook China. The opportunity is too big to pass up!
Best wishes,
Ron
P.S. I cover China and other international ETF trends in my 21st Century Superpower Trader premium service. Subscribers receive specific buy and sell recommendations for the fastest-moving global markets. Link http://www.monyandmarket.com/ for more information.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Beauty of Nature-God's Gift, Just Cool
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
SHUBA NAVARATRI !!! -START "CBS" TECHNIQUE
Strat Your New Buying and Enjoy Profit Booking in India Market
"CBS"-Contineuous Buying and Selling Technique without Stoploss
Entry Volume Break-out with Confirmation of other Indicators
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Welcome to all STOCK MARKET TRADER & INVESTORS
<-- Clik MeWelcome to all
I feel very happy to visit my blog by you, some thing expect from me about INDIAN STOCK MARKET and look out through another window.
I will try to fullfil your wishes and way of thinking in profitable manner.
I expect your valuable comments and say your needs to develope this blog. We will challanges with crores and crores of money, people and stocks in every day, every minutes, every seconds.
I think This blog will meet out your needs.
In the mean time, awaiting for your comments, K.MOKAN DASS,
9042432705/944335823/914327222505, mokansnifty@gmail.com NO.3Q, Dhanalakshmi Nagar, Atthur Road, THURAIYUR-621010, Trichy Dt., Tamil Nadu, India
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